We find that estimating party positions with computational methods (wordscores and wordfish) for Finnish parties 2003-2019 prove to be insufficient in comparison to traditional methods such as expert surveys, the Manifesto Project and voter estimates.
We find that ideological positions of candidates matter for their electoral success in Finnish parliamentary elections, using data from three Finnish elections (2011-2019). The effect of ideological distance is large enough to be a decisive factor in intra-party competition between the last candidate that was elected and the first one that was not.
The paper shows that the effect of geographic remoteness depends on local party strength and the degree of urbanization. Moreover, empirical results confirm that nearby located localized co-partisans decrease a candidate’s own vote share. These findings have important implications for politicians’ careers, party nomination strategies and future empirical research on intra-party competition.
Sosiaalisen median aineistoja on pyritty hyödyntämään ennustemalleissa esimerkiksi vaalitulosten, työttömyysasteen, osakekurssien tai kuluttajatuotteiden kysynnän ennakoinnissa. Laajempia kulutusilmiöitä on kuitenkin harvemmin pyritty ennustamaan …